DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 1
| Candidate | Votes | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
15.0 | (34.1%) | Elected | |
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
14.0 | (31.8%) | ||
| Cory Nott, Computer Programmer (Libertarian) |
|
5.0 | (11.4%) | ||
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
5.0 | (11.4%) | ||
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
3.0 | (6.8%) | ||
| Mark DeSaulnier, Contra Costa County Supervisor (Democratic) |
|
1.0 | (2.3%) | ||
| Mary Hayashi, Registered Nursing Boardmember (Democratic) |
|
1.0 | (2.3%) | ||
In the first round, the first choices on each ballot are tallied.
Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) has enough votes to guarantee victory
(16.7%) and is declared a winner.To ensure that everyone's vote counts equally, votes that exceed that threshold are counted toward their next highest ranking (this is actually done by counting a fraction of ballots cast for the winning candidate).
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 2
| Candidate | Votes | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | ||
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
14.0 | (31.8%) | Elected | |
| Cory Nott, Computer Programmer (Libertarian) |
|
5.0 | (11.4%) | ||
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
7.3 | (16.6%) | ||
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
3.0 | (6.8%) | ||
| Mark DeSaulnier, Contra Costa County Supervisor (Democratic) |
|
1.0 | (2.3%) | ||
| Mary Hayashi, Registered Nursing Boardmember (Democratic) |
|
1.0 | (2.3%) | ||
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
5.4 | (12.2%) | ||
Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) has enough votes to guarantee victory (16.7%) and is declared a winner.To ensure that everyone's vote counts equally, votes that exceed that threshold are counted toward their next highest ranking (this is actually done by counting a fraction of ballots cast for the winning candidate).
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 3
| Candidate | Votes | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Cory Nott, Computer Programmer (Libertarian) |
|
5.0 | (11.4%) | |
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
7.3 | (16.6%) | |
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
5.8 | (13.1%) | |
| Mark DeSaulnier, Contra Costa County Supervisor (Democratic) |
|
2.1 | (4.8%) | |
| Mary Hayashi, Registered Nursing Boardmember (Democratic) |
|
1.0 | (2.3%) | Defeated |
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
5.4 | (12.2%) | |
| Jill Buck, Nonprofit Executive Director (Republican) |
|
2.8 | (6.3%) | |
The last-place candidate (Mary Hayashi, Registered Nursing Boardmember (Democratic)) is eliminated. Ballots for that candidate are counted toward their next highest ranking.
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 4
| Candidate | Votes | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | ||
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | ||
| Cory Nott, Computer Programmer (Libertarian) |
|
5.0 | (11.4%) | ||
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
8.3 | (18.9%) | Elected | |
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
5.8 | (13.1%) | ||
| Mark DeSaulnier, Contra Costa County Supervisor (Democratic) |
|
2.1 | (4.8%) | ||
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
5.4 | (12.2%) | ||
| Jill Buck, Nonprofit Executive Director (Republican) |
|
2.8 | (6.3%) | ||
Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) has enough votes to guarantee victory (16.7%) and is declared a winner.To ensure that everyone's vote counts equally, votes that exceed that threshold are counted toward their next highest ranking (this is actually done by counting a fraction of ballots cast for the winning candidate).
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 5
| Candidate | Votes | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Cory Nott, Computer Programmer (Libertarian) |
|
5.0 | (11.4%) | |
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
5.8 | (13.1%) | |
| Mark DeSaulnier, Contra Costa County Supervisor (Democratic) |
|
2.1 | (4.8%) | Defeated |
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
6.3 | (14.4%) | |
| Jill Buck, Nonprofit Executive Director (Republican) |
|
2.8 | (6.3%) | |
The last-place candidate (Mark DeSaulnier, Contra Costa County Supervisor (Democratic)) is eliminated. Ballots for that candidate are counted toward their next highest ranking.
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 6
| Candidate | Votes | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
8.4 | (19.2%) | |
| Cory Nott, Computer Programmer (Libertarian) |
|
5.0 | (11.4%) | |
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
6.8 | (15.4%) | |
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
6.3 | (14.4%) | |
| Jill Buck, Nonprofit Executive Director (Republican) |
|
2.8 | (6.3%) | Defeated |
The last-place candidate (Jill Buck, Nonprofit Executive Director (Republican)) is eliminated. Ballots for that candidate are counted toward their next highest ranking.
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 7
| Candidate | Votes | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | ||
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
8.4 | (19.2%) | ||
| Cory Nott, Computer Programmer (Libertarian) |
|
5.0 | (11.4%) | ||
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | ||
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
9.6 | (21.7%) | Elected | |
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
6.3 | (14.4%) | ||
Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) has enough votes to guarantee victory (16.7%) and is declared a winner.To ensure that everyone's vote counts equally, votes that exceed that threshold are counted toward their next highest ranking (this is actually done by counting a fraction of ballots cast for the winning candidate).
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 8
| Candidate | Votes | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
8.4 | (19.2%) | |
| Cory Nott, Computer Programmer (Libertarian) |
|
6.8 | (15.4%) | Defeated |
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | |
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
6.8 | (15.4%) | |
The last-place candidate (Cory Nott, Computer Programmer (Libertarian)) is eliminated. Ballots for that candidate are counted toward their next highest ranking.
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 9
| Candidate | Votes | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | ||
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
10.9 | (24.7%) | Equalized | |
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
7.3 | (16.7%) | ||
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
9.3 | (21.2%) | ||
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
9.1 | (20.7%) | ||
At this point, the number of remaining candidates equals the number of remaining seats, so the remaining candidates are declared elected.
Transfers are made from each winner until they all have an equal share of the votes.
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 10
| Candidate | Votes | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
8.2 | (18.7%) | ||
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | ||
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
8.5 | (19.4%) | ||
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
9.3 | (21.2%) | Equalized | |
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
9.1 | (20.7%) | ||
At this point, the number of remaining candidates equals the number of remaining seats, so the remaining candidates are declared elected.
Transfers are made from each winner until they all have an equal share of the votes.
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 11
| Candidate | Votes | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
8.7 | (19.7%) | ||
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | ||
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
8.6 | (19.6%) | ||
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | ||
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
9.1 | (20.7%) | Equalized | |
At this point, the number of remaining candidates equals the number of remaining seats, so the remaining candidates are declared elected.
Transfers are made from each winner until they all have an equal share of the votes.
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 12
| Candidate | Votes | Status | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
8.7 | (19.9%) | ||
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | ||
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
8.9 | (20.1%) | Equalized | |
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | ||
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | ||
At this point, the number of remaining candidates equals the number of remaining seats, so the remaining candidates are declared elected.
Transfers are made from each winner until they all have an equal share of the votes.
Go to the next round.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Round 13
| Candidate | Votes | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ytuarte, Radio Producer (Peace and Freedom) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | Elected |
| Arne Simonsen, Antioch City Council Member (Republican) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | Elected |
| Loni Hancock, Incumbent (Democratic) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | Elected |
| Guy Houston, Businessman/State Legislator (Republican) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | Elected |
| Sandre Swanson, Trustee, Pension Fund (Democratic) |
|
8.8 | (20.0%) | Elected |
At this point, the number of remaining candidates equals the number of remaining seats, so the remaining candidates are declared elected.
In the end, 100% of all cast ballots counted toward a winner. This compares to 95.5% if only the first-round votes were used. You should be able to see that the winners have a more equal mandate in the final round than in the first round.
Note that even the "highest first-round votes" method is more democratic than most methods used in US public elections: the "vote for 5" method, which allows the largest block of voters to dominate, and the district method, where choices are restricted to the one or two viable candidates within geographical boundaries drawn by the politicians in office.
Also, view the Ballot Depth info to see how much lower rankings contributed to the tally.
DemoChoice Web Poll: Assembly members from Oakland and Contra Costa (District 15)
5 candidates will be elected with 44 ballots cast.
Ballot Depth
This shows how much the lower rankings on ballots contributed to the winning candidates.
| Rank | Fraction of votes for winners | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st |
|
50.3% | |
| 2nd |
|
30.6% | |
| 3rd |
|
6.8% | |
| 5th |
|
2.6% | |
| 6th |
|
2.6% | |
| 7th |
|
0.7% | |
| 8th |
|
3.9% | |
| 9th |
|
2.4% | |